All the housing news seemed brutal for a while, but now we’re starting to see a lot of numbers/analysis that suggest maybe, just maybe, we’re close to a bottom (like THIS REPORT and THIS REPORT). At the same time, we continue to get conflicting reports that say we’re nowhere near a recovery, like THIS ONE and THIS ONE.
I thought I would check in with Larry Roberts of the Irvine Housing Blog to see what he makes of all the latest news and data. Known as IrvineRenter on the IHB, Larry Roberts has been chronicling the city’s real estate market for more than two years. His unapologetically bearish outlook has gained him fans and foes alike.
Irvine Homes: Some say the market is showing signs of recovery because sales are up and inventory is tight. Are those reliable indicators?
Larry Roberts: Sales are up because prices are affordable at the low end of the market; in fact, that is the only market strata where prices are affordable, so that is where the activity is. People have made much about the increase in sales volumes, but volume is still 40% less than historic norms. We are coming off the historic low in sales volume, so we were bound to have an increase. However, since we are still far below historic norms, the market is anything but healthy.
Inventory is very tight right now. There are very few organic sales, most short sales either take forever or do not go through, and REO dominates the market. This will change.
Right now, the amount of REO actually for sale does not reflect the inventory that lenders are holding. Just in the last couple of weeks at the Irvine Housing Blog, I have profiled two properties that were foreclosed on by the lenders in mid-2008, and they were just now being listed. It should take a lender 30-60 days at most to prepare a property for disposition. Some have taken 9-12 months. There is a large backlog of this shadow inventory, and it grows every day because people are still defaulting on their mortgages at unprecedented and increasing rates.
IH: In our last Q&A you predicted the median Irvine home price would bottom at $375,000. Is that still your prediction?
LR: I still believe the median will bottom near that figure. The median represents the amount people are able to put toward housing. It represents the sum of the available savings and the amount a lender will extend in a loan. Savings through home equity is being wiped out, so this will not be a significant source moving forward, and the amount lenders will loan is going back to the conservative lending standards of the mid 90s. The biggest impact on the price level represented by the median going forward will be interest rates. If we fall into a decade-long malaise like the Japanese did that allows us to maintain 5% mortgage interest rates indefinitely, then the median will hold at a higher price level. However, if interest rates rise — which seem likely — then the median price I have predicted may be too high. 7%-8% interest rates will almost certainly push the median below $400,000, and I believe we will see interest rates at those levels when we see economic recovery.
IH: You also predicted Irvine’s median wouldn’t hit bottom until 2012. Do you stand by that timeline, or has it changed due to recent developments?
LR: The timing of the bottom depends largely on the timing of the foreclosure process. Anything that expedites this process will make the bottom happen sooner, and anything that delays foreclosures just delays when we reach the bottom. Many people seem to believe that if we delay the foreclosure process long enough that these problems will go away on their own. They won’t. Like a rite of passage, the purging of debt must occur for this market to recover.
We still have a large amount of unsustainable debt held by many homeowners in the mid to high end of the market. There are only two realistic scenarios where these debts are made manageable: (1) property sale, and (2) loan modification.
Many people would like to sell their properties for enough to pay off their debts; however, in order to sell there must be someone capable of taking on this debt service with stable loan terms. Incomes do not match current debt loads (if they did, we would not be having problems with loan defaults). Since there are few buyers capable of taking on the existing debt, you end up with a few people cashing in lottery tickets (getting their debts paid off by a new buyer) and many more who cannot sell for enough to cover their debt.
Loan modifications have proven to be a failure in the past, but assume they work this time around. The payments these modified loan terms require are still onerous, and the people who adhere to the new terms will not have much disposable income to enjoy their lives. This is bad for the economy and difficult for families. Many will give up and either sell or let the property go in foreclosure anyway.
If you look at the current situation of unsustainable debt, you see that the afflicted break down into three groups: (1) those that sell to a new buyer with healthy terms, (2) those that sell in a foreclosure auction, (3) those that obtain a loan modification and live with unbearable terms until they also sell. Notice that each of these groups ends up with a near-term sale. The cumulative impact of all these near-term sales is that supply exceeds demand and prices continue to go down.
There is an unrealistic scenario that many are embracing as their last hope. Assume the loan modification programs now in place succeed and many homeowners are put in a position where they do not need to sell. This averts the foreclosure problem and puts the market on solid ground. Further assume that since this huge source of must-sell inventory is removed from the market that prices begin to appreciate. Once prices go up, lenders allow people to open HELOCs, and with the new source of money people are thereby relieved of the onerous problems caused by living within the terms of their loan modification agreements. This is the current market fantasy.
Why do I say this is unrealistic? Well, in case you didn’t pick up on it, I just described a Ponzi Scheme. It is very unlikely that lenders are going to return to the lending practices that just cost them trillions of dollars in losses. People will not be given the chance to increase their bids for real estate through mortgage lending due to tighter lending standards. Debt levels need to be decreased not increased. Even at very low interest rates, people cannot afford the debt they have. Lenders are not going to re-inflate the housing bubble any time soon.
So with that background, I can answer the original question; the median will not bottom until the debt is purged, and I believe it will take until at least 2012 to complete this process. The more the government tries to manipulate the markets, the longer it will take to get to the bottom.
IH: You’re known for advising your readers not to buy a home just yet. Is there any situation in which you would say OK, go ahead and pull the trigger?
LR: There are always reasons people may want to own real estate that is not financial. I recently referred an IHB reader who is about to close on an Irvine property. Being an IHB reader, he knows our position on the direction of the market, and he has no illusions about the property increasing in value any time soon. He wants to own real estate to provide stability for his family and allow them to put down deeper roots in the community. As this is a high net worth individual, he would not be significantly harmed even if he had to sell at the very bottom of the market.
My responsibility at the IHB is to tell the truth as I see it. I am advising people not to purchase right now for financial reasons. There are many in the real estate community who are still trying to convince buyers that now is a great time to buy because of financial reasons (just as they have been all along). Whether it is proffered by duplicity or ignorance, the advice is still bad. Since I could not claim ignorance, for me to advise otherwise would be duplicitous. I refuse to do that.
I am not buying right now because I could not withstand the equity loss associated with buying at this time. This outweighs any emotional factors associated with the desire to own. When prices reach rental parity, I will look to buy because the financial situation is then in my favor, and I can indulge the emotional desire for home ownership. For those people in a stronger financial position who understand the financial price they are paying to satisfy their emotional needs and are prepared for the consequences, who am I to tell them they should not buy? I am not the buyer’s parent, I am only an advisor.
How could someone read an article like this and still believe that realtor telling them that “now is the time to buy”? This man has no vested interest in your decision. In other words, he’s not lying.
Its time to buy if one wants to buy for the right reason. If you want to buy to flip in two or three years than…no, it is not the right time. if you want to buy and plan on being in the house for 15 to 20 years then…yes, it is a great time to buy. I know we are not at the bottom and but if your purchase is a long term investment than in 15 to 20 years a 5% to 8% decrease now will be miniscule by then. It’s all perspective.
There there will only be a max decrease of 8% from now? Then why not wait until home prices increase 8% off a low?
What if it is a home you love? If people bought homes they loved 3 or 4 years ago, we might not be in this mess as deep as we are in. Instead people bought RE just for the sake of buying a RE. So when times got tough there was no reason to stay.
I bought 3 years ago b/c I saved enough to put 20% down and could afford the payments. I still can and I love my house and have no desire to leave.
this might work if you always know what you will be doing for the next 15 to 20 years. For many people, the possibility of losing their job or having some life change (e.g. divorce, marraige etc.) in the next few years is a real concern.
then according to that logic, one should never buy b/c anything could happen at anytime.
Tell that to the people who bought in the early 1990s, were a slave to high mortgage payments (compared to rent) and then finally puked up their homes seven, eight, nine years later when they could get out without losing money. Of course that is nominally, they still lost the 10 year time value of the money.
It will be like that this time, but longer. We are looking at a 10 or 15 year period before prices get back to peak.
Oh, and anything meaningfully above the government limits has a long way to fall - way more than 8%.
Gozer says … “then according to that logic, one should never buy b/c anything could happen at anytime.”
Wow, I didn’t think this would have to be explained, so here it is: If you have to sell after a few years and the market is still going down, you LOSE MONEY. In a more normal market, after a few years, you MIGHT break even after realtor fees, closing costs etc.
This is not a normal market, hence there is a far greater risk you will lose money.
Nice post Larry. Why do I get the feeling Erica was trying to get you to succumb to her agenda? From her recent posts and her loaded questions, which you did not fall for, where her paycheck is coming from is quite clear. Sorry Erica, we all have to make a living somehow.
Actually, Erika is one of the good ones. By presenting facts and differing opinions, she permitted me to provide an answer that addresses these issues. There are many “gotcha” journalists out there; Erika isn’t one of them.
Erika, did you interview Larry by email — and not by phone or in person? Because I can’t believe anyone would give such detailed answers off-the-cuff.
BTW, I don’t see any agenda in your questions. All the comments must mean you’re doing something right. No comments would mean no one is reading…
Yes, this interview was via email.
My “agenda” changes depending on the post, according to readers. Just a couple of posts back, I was accused of trying to derail home sales…I guess sometimes you just can’t win.
Thanks for the comment.
Good article. I sure hope that shadow inventory hits soon and sales volumes continue to go up. I would like prices to go down. I just want to see volumes go up.
Obviously Mr. Roberts hasn’t been out making offers on houses for the past 5 months - while the median has crept up steadily.
We Realtors would love for the alleged “shadow inventory” to start showing up. Frankly, even if the inventory of distressed properties tripled, the number of offers per listing of properties under $500k would only drop from 8 or 10 per property down to a more manageable 2 or 3.
There appears to be more than enough qualified, ready, willing, and able buyers to absorb all the REOs that are on the horizon over the next 12+ months - with a resulting continued slow climb of the Orange County ( And Irvine’s.) median.
The best time to buy in Orange County, California just may have happened back in April and May of this year, when interest rates and house prices were at the lowest they will probably ever be.
Oh my God! I missed the bottom, now I will be priced out forever!
Complete dribble.
You should put your money in housing futures, where the pros are predicting double digit DECLINES for our area over the next 12 months.
Thank you for proving the points I made in my commentary.
I agree on the part that there are enough buyers out there in the 400-500K range properties to absorb the next onslaught. I have been putting offers out for past 4-5 months but havnt been able to get any property. Every time i loose and the property gets sold for much less than my offer, i am told that it was a cash offer. Thats hard to believe that so many homes are being bought with cash only. or may be there is something going on with listing agents handing over the properties to their preferred party.
but bottomline is that they can do this because of large number of buyers..
Sam, I am experiencing the same thing trying to buy in Santa Ana. We are trying to buy at the low end of our affordability so that we can afford to take a loss if prices go down, but no one is even considering our offers against the all-cash offers.
If anything, this proves investors are still keeping prices high by pumping up demand. Eventually they will have to dump these properties–maybe you are desperate enough to buy a flip and make these investors some money, but I’m going to wait until they run out of cash and are forced to compete with shadow inventory and traditional sellers who have seen the light. This is a bump in the road–wait until the market is past it.
Yo Bobby,
Can you say wage deflation?
Bob is your traditional real estate spin doctor. I just check his web site which reports unemployment rates. I applaud him for that–or is he conning people.
He is reporting the national rate and not the calif rate. Hello BOB… Calif is 11.5 not 9 %. Income has been flat in calif for many years (except for real estate), companies are moving jobs outside of calif and the State is broke. However Calif is controlled by DEM’s so expect higher tax’s before Friday. All this leads to a deflating Calif economy.
Yep…this is the best time to buy! David Lereah thinks so.
Inland empire-its a great time. mortgage is less than rent.
Yes, there really are many properties at or below rental parity. It may not be at the bottom quite yet, but if you are saving money versus renting, who cares?
There are some in Santa Ana / Anaheim areas too, but all-cash investors are eating them up. It’s just a matter of time before that is behind us.
I agree. I recently purchased a house in Riverside which I believe I could rent out for double my monthly payment (principal + interest + property taxes + insurance). I’m not going to; I bought it to live in. But in almost any rent vs. own calculation in the IE, owning right now wins big time, except possibly on the high end.
But almost anywhere in the OC or central LA County (that is, not counting Lancaster/Palmdale), the opposite is true. Buying right now in Irvine would be a bad financial play.
For the RE agent and HMB, it’s always time to buy. They get their percentage if the buyer wins or losses his shirt.
Who says house prices must double in ten years? What make people and the govt think that it’s good that people spend 50% of their gross income on mortgage and property tax payments? Income taxes and SSI 30%, transportation cost (car, insurance, gas, or public transportation cost $50/month per person.) 5%-10%., utilities 2%, health insurance 3%-15%, etc. That doesn’t leave much for clothes and food.
If their are no jobs, no one can afford to buy the house. If house cost are kept high, the economy will eventually stagnate. Only groups that really benefit are those that skim from the top ( govt., RE agents, HMB/lenders), flippers and RE service industry. Home owner feel rich but are actually just working to service the loan and taxes. If they sell, they still need to find another high price place to live.
Good article Erica.
I just wanted to say thank you to Mr. Roberts.
Back in November 2007 when I was looking to buy a condo in Irvine I stumble upon his blog and after reading it….. I backed out of buying the condo. Saving me tons of money and giving me a valuable lesson in orange county real estate.
Thank you for the kind words. I am glad to be of service. I only wish more had heeded by warning.
yeah, great story. Now tomorrow you will have one about light at the end of the tunnel. Then one that says everything’s rosy. Then one that say “unexpected rise in foreclosures. Just be sure to cover all the bases every week o.c.r. You have to be pc & not leave anyone out.
Its to bad the ocr cant figure out what they stand foe. You know the old saying stand for something or fall……….
I was under the impression that news organizations weren’t supposed to “stand for” anything at all. Y’know, neutrality and impartiality and all that? I don’t want my news sources to have a consistent agenda. Just report (and perhaps analyze) the facts.
Ask Marshall Reddick if it is a great time to buy. He is the investment Guru in S Ca that is going Bankrupt, he has lost over 400 homes, and he is still saying this is the best time EVER to buy. Oh by the way he happens to be a RE Agent also.
There is currently a 3.5 months supply of homes in Orange County and REOs have dropped to 20% (360) compared to the height of the housing crisis in 2008. There is almost a buying panic out there for Irvine Homes priced under $1 million. Perhaps, the fall and winter will bring more sanity to the current heated market in Irvine. But I would not necessarily bet on that. Even with possible rising interest rates, inflation is already creaping into the local economy. This, coupled with historic lows for new building permits and a controlled release of future REOs by the banks, will create a low supply/high demand situation for the Irvine Housing Market.
Shame on you Larry Roberts. Instead of staying true to your original mission of educating people about the Irvine housing market, you are not facing the facts and will soon be blamed for misrepresenting the current housing market to your loyal readers for economic gains (your book and other sponsored products).
Even a broken clock is twice right. The housing cycle has already reached a bottom in Irvine. Wait any longer and be at risk of becoming a citizen of the rental class. If you have more faith in the constancy of our fiat currency vs. the local economy and the aligned interests of businesses, politicians, and homeowners, you will be in for a rude awakening.
Buy now!
Wow. If you really are a Harvard educated teacher then I would expect better grammar and, frankly, a more intelligent point of view. On the other hand, anyone that would feel a need to brag about their alma mater in the comments section of a blog must have a few insecurities…
Shame on you, Harvardteacher (notice the comma?). Larry has done nothing but offer thoughtful, evidence-based analysis in order to help people. What’s your agenda?
It’s teachers like that as to why our school system is broken. And a high rate of drop outs. It’s ashame that we didn’t raise the standards in selecting teachers. I’m glad I took my children out of California back in the eighties, otherwise they would have paper brains as adults.
Identity fraud lie, poorly perpetrated.
I am a supreme being of pure energy, and I was browsing Earth’s internets and came upon this discussion about your worlds’ realestate prices.
Even if Irvine housing has been increasing in the past few months, realestate prices will not come back to 2006 prices for many long years. It is prudent for Earthlings to wait and see what happens, since prices will remain flat to declining for a long time.
You bulls are so screwed. I guess all the people that work for the Register are going to take their 5% pay cut and run out and buy a house.
Not a single respectable professor at Harvard would ever criticize an individual for making a statement that they believe while backing it up with valid statistical data. You, of all people, should know that he motto at Harvard is: Veritas (Latin for “truth”)
Thanks for pointing it out that Larry really doesn’t know much and has other motives. Since when does he have a ‘Crystal Ball’? Heck , I want one of those too! If you think about it, he uses his blog to get press and my guess is he’s an out of work banker that trying to make a name for himself, without the fundamental knowledge of economics. Kinda like Rush Limbaugh. Well, he probably has some t-shirts to sell, along with some nice coasters.
“This man has no vested interest in your decision. In other words, he’s not lying.”
Except for the book(s) he’s written on the historical bear market, of course. Being a real estate bear is his business.
I’ll try again…
A blogger above stated: “This man has no vested interest in your decision. In other words, he’s not lying.”
To which I respond: Except for selling the bearish book(s) he’s written on the biggest real estate bubble ever, and that he’d like to pick-up a nice property in Irvine/Newport at some point…everyone’s got an agenda, though I don’t dispute he believes what he writes.
To which I respond: I doubt Larry has made enough money from selling his housing bubble book to even match his time and efforts to write and market it.
Only a tiny percentage of writers make any profit from their books. He should be commended for trying to document the reasons for the bubble and its subsequent historical and ongoing collapse.
The biggest real estate bubble in history, 2000-2007, is a fact, and not something to be disputed. Maybe try reading his book before suggesting Larry has any so called ‘agenda’.
The Great Housing Bubble: Why Did House Prices Fall?
Nobody is getting rich from selling a book on real estate, folks.
If Larry doesn’t buy soon, he will soon miss the boat! It is just too bad that some of the most brilliant people are the worst when it comes to business and market timing. (Seen plenty of those at Harvard!)
My advise to bloggers who follow Larry. Get off your behind and start looking for houses to buy in Irvine. Witness for yourself the frenzy that is the Irvine housing market today. The bottom for the Irvine real estate market was March-April 2009 - period. Any future price movement will be dictated more by inflation and lack of supply.
For those who have not purchased a home in Irvine, wait and weep. For those proud homeowners who have defied the naysayers: a pat on the back for sticking through this credit crisis.
It is more probable that home prices in Irvine will go up by +50% in the next 5 years than will go down by -50%.
Lastly, for those who disagree, please cite data and facts. Do not rest your financial futures on some theoretical assumption which cannot account for all of the variable that are out there in the real world.
Congrats for your realtard speech!
Ya, I hear their is a real frenzy in the job market in Irvine also. That 50% increase in prices you speak of, is that Monopoly money they are paying with?
Looking at the census data, Irvine is #3 in the Country for population growth for cities >200K residents. It is only behind New Orleans, LA and Gilbert, AZ. This is incredible and helps explain why homes are flying off the shelf in the Irvine real estate market.
Irvine also has the highest median housing price for all of the top 25 cities. Obviously not everyone can afford to purchase a home in Irvine; therefore the base for the Irvine Housing Blog and Larry Robert’s group of dispossessed.
Does your number count the homeless as well as the jobless?
Homes in Irvine flying off the shelf? That must mean that when the drops from the shelve, it hits pay dirt, otherwise it means the prices are falling. I don’t see anything interesting in Irvine to intice me to purchase a home there.
All RE agents passeson their pep talks that they receive from the NAR. A group of idiots that tells the RE agents what they want to hear. Please open your eyes, they tell you that grap so that you are dumb enough to pay your annual dues to NAR.
No one really needs a realtor to purcahse a home. There are alot of Help-u-sell companies that assist you with all documents. And ,if you belong to a solid Credit Union, get your home loan from them. Most likely you won’t get screwed like you would from a loan officer at a major bank.
Larry Roberts - could you do me a favor — and don’t take this the wrong way — run down an outline of your wealth you’ve gathered from real estate. show us how your knowledge of your real estate and your ability to time the trough have helped you amass a material amount of wealth. Based on my knowledge, you are a renter in irvine, awaiting the “perfect” timing on the housing bottom. to be bluntly honest, i think you are one of the academic types that teaches about how people should invest in theory but don’t have the practical results to show.
i’d advise the readers against relying on people who speak convincingly but have no results to back them up. larry roberts is one of them - who is he to critique the irvine resi market and advise ANYONE on the timing of when to buy what and when?
There is no such thing as a “Teacher” at Harvard.
They are called professors.
Hardvardteacher and StandfordAlum are most likely Aliases for those RE clowns Gunner or Dealeo. Haven’t seen either piping in yet.
Let me take a stab at this…..
Historical home price appreciation is about 3.5% per year (for the last 80 years). The real estate bubble started in 1997 and went through 2005. A typical 500K home bought in 1997 should be worth approximatly 750K today Most of these homes are priced at 900K or above and at the height of the bubble were priced in the 1.3 and 1.4 million dollar range. Home price appreciation barely outpaces inflation for the last 80 years. Those are the facts.
To get the true value of a property you are looking at. Go back to 1997 price level for that home and then compound annually at 3.5% for 12 years and you will get a relatively good idea. You will need to adjust for upgrades, etc….but this should give you a pretty good figure. If you review current MLS listings, you will see many homes are till over-priced historically. Some have adjusted, but we re not at the bottom yet. Especially with the GM backrupty and the 1 million jobs that are tied to that and the 2500 dealerships closing will put heavy downward force on Commercial real estate prices as that will be a lot of empty buiildings, which are difficult to change around for another type of tenant.
Jobs report showed another 473K jobs lost in June. Auto sales are on pace to match 1967 levels when we only had 100 million registered drivers. We have over 200 million registered drivers now….
I don’t know, everything I read, see, hear and smell tells me prices will go down and should go down.
Hold onto your hats.
Exactly, John. And there is an interesting, but not surprising, confluence: the prices you refer to (3.5% compounded appreciation since ‘97) are there because the long-term trends were based on *affordability* relative to incomes, for normal 20% down 30-yr amortized loans. The inflation appreciation was matched as much to income inflation as anything else. And that trendline also happens to match the price point for cash-flow positive investment (rental parity). I don’t expect to see bulk investment purchases until prices clear below that level, and I won’t be a buyer, either. I am happy to be a renter and banking over 60k/yr compared to what I would be paying a mortgage for in this market, since as a renter I can (and do) also choose to rent a smaller property in the interim.
The simplest way to explain this to people is by pointing out that most people in the county could not afford to buy their own home with a normal mortgage product. Assuming the pool of buyers is from their peers with similar incomes, that says it all. The fantasy move-up market is gone for at least a decade.
Meanwhile, as the foreclosure phenomenon moves up the housing food chain to the jumbo option-ARM properties in the mid- and higher range in OC, the anomalous statistic will be that the median sales price is rising. Beware of liars and statistics - you know what will be misrepresented, using those statistics - that ‘housing is recovering’ - when the truth is that prices are falling for comparable properties, though the median is rising - and that the prices will continue to fall until we get to the true clearing price of rental parity etc.
Thanks again to Larry for clear and thoroughly researched commentary. And thanks to the Register and Erika (and Matt) for posting more than the NAR party line about real estate.
TwoWheels…I didn’t think THIS had to be explained. His post was “For many people, the possibility of losing their job or having some life change (e.g. divorce, marraige etc.) in the next few years is a real concern.” Things like that will always happen in a good or bad market. So BY THAT LOGIC no one should ever buy anything b/c anyting could happen anytime!
Before you start getting on your soap box and talking down to people, take a deep breath, read everything a second time, then post something that doesn’t make you look so moronic.
“The biggest real estate bubble in history, 2000-2007, is a fact, and not something to be disputed.”
Ooops, I’ve upset some of the groupies. I never disputed that we’ve experienced perhaps the largest real estate bubble in history (there was a pretty big one in the 1800’s too). I simply dispute that Larry does not have an agenda — everyone has an agenda. Books, seminars, etc. Yes, he’s provided a service. Does that make his opinions flawless? No, they are still opinions based on the data at hand. I agreed with him for a time, I simply do not share his extremely bearish views on real estate any longer. After watching the market closely since 2003, I actually believe we have hit bottom. But, we shall see…
While we are on the topic of population growth in Irvine…..
My wife and I are thinking about moving to Irvine in the near future.
Does anyone know where we could locate a map that shows the geography of Irvine by zip code?
Much thanks!
I’m siding with LR. We’re fighting off the hangover with more shots of whiskey (i.e., artificially low interest rates) and denial (i.e., foreclosure moratoria). Sooner or later gravity will take over with skyrocketing unemployment, wage deflation and rising interest rates as T-bonds become unpalatable.
I guess, however, we’ll just have to wait and see which viewpoint is right.
Anyone who reads IrvineRenter’s blog knows he puts a great deal of research and passion into his posts. Most critics belie their objectivity by revealing their disregard for simple economics. On top of it all, Larry gives us patient waiters a chance to get sanity checks every day!
Thank you Erika and Larry for this article. I made sure my wife read it.
The most admirable trait any human being can provide is the truth and Larry Roberts has done this day in and day out in his Irvine Housing Blog. No one has paid him to explain Heloc’s, DTI ratio’s, median cost structures, Loan Modification’s, Arm resets or many of the other terms used daily in his blog to educate the masses.
If more people were like Mr. Roberts we would have a lot less fraud in our world. I commend any person who puts themselves out there to help others for solely pure reasons of truth telling. And this is what he has done. Whatever little money he received from his book or blog ads is purely grocery money. He deserves much more!!
Such a shame that several comments on here mention that the gentleman has a book and therefore has an agenda and yet the first ones to mention said book are in fact the ones complaining about it.
Larry never makes it a point to “shill” his book in this interview as most would, in fact there is not even a link to it nor a mention of it by the reporter. It appears his best publicity is his detractors.
That be said, I appreciate his well thought out assumptions and will most certainly take this into account. I don’t personally believe home prices will fall to statistical data as the buying process is to tainted with emotion, but I certainly see a continued large drop. Why? Well..
Just like you and I, most pay their mortgage via paychecks and yet unemployment is at an all-time high and growing.
Just like you and I, most buyers utilize appreciated and saved equity in their homes to buy a step-up and yet most homeowners in the last 8 years are underwater or even at best.